In this project, I assess Dubai's transition from natural-gas generation to large-scale solar power. I compare the current and proposed systems from technical, economic, environmental and social perspectives, using SDG 7 as the main framework.
To what extent can the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park reduce Dubai's dependence on natural-gas generation while maintaining affordability, reliability and fair access to energy?
I compare the Jebel Ali Power and Desalination Complex with Dubai's expanding solar-energy system. Rather than assuming that natural gas can be removed immediately, I examine how solar PV, concentrated solar power (CSP), storage, energy efficiency and improved grid management could reduce fossil-fuel use without weakening supply reliability.
Sources: DEWA (2026a; 2026b).
I used a comparative case-study method based on official capacity and demand statistics, DEWA project information, international cost reports and academic research. I distinguished installed capacity from annual electricity generation, because the two measures describe different aspects of system performance. I then assessed both systems against five criteria.
Study boundary: The analysis focuses on electricity supply in Dubai. Hourly dispatch data, plant-level fuel costs and confidential power-purchase agreements were not publicly available, so the economic comparison is indicative rather than a complete investment appraisal.
SDG 7 aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. Dubai already has near-universal electricity access, so the main challenge in this case is not connection to the grid. It is how to meet rising demand while reducing emissions, controlling long-term costs and maintaining a dependable electricity supply.
Maintain reliable and affordable electricity services while demand grows.
Increase solar PV, CSP and storage within Dubai's generation mix.
Reduce conversion losses, network losses and energy intensity.
Mobilise private investment through the independent power producer (IPP) model.
Expand clean-energy capacity, storage, smart grids and research facilities.
Global context from Tracking SDG 7: The Energy Progress Report 2026. These figures show why progress should be assessed through access, affordability and equity as well as installed renewable capacity.
I selected the Jebel Ali Power and Desalination Complex as the current system. DEWA reports 9,547 MW of electricity-generation capacity, and the complex also supports large-scale water desalination.
Its main advantage is dispatchability. Gas and steam turbines can be scheduled when demand rises, which supports system reliability. The complex also benefits from established fuel arrangements, experienced operators and strong grid connections. In addition, its cogeneration system uses heat from power production to support desalination.
However, natural gas remains a fossil fuel. Combustion produces carbon dioxide, while upstream extraction and transport may add methane emissions. Continued reliance on gas also exposes the system to fuel-price and climate-policy risks. The close link between power generation and thermal desalination can further complicate the transition to a lower-carbon system.
Sources: DEWA (2021; 2026b), IPCC (2022).
I selected the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park as the future alternative because it combines photovoltaic generation, concentrated solar power and energy storage. This technology mix addresses some of the limitations of relying on daytime PV alone.
PV modules convert sunlight directly into electricity. They are modular, relatively quick to deploy and now rank among the lowest-cost sources of new utility-scale generation worldwide.
Mirrors concentrate solar heat to produce steam, while thermal storage allows generation to continue after sunset. This makes part of the solar output more controllable than conventional PV alone.
The planned seventh phase combines 2,000 MW of PV with a 1,400 MW battery system designed for six hours of storage, equivalent to 8,400 MWh. The system is intended to shift part of the daytime solar output into evening demand periods and support grid stability.
DEWA reports 3,860 MW of solar PV and CSP capacity by the end of 2025, with the park planned to reach 8,060 MW by 2030. Phase IV includes 700 MW of CSP, 250 MW of PV and 5,907 MWh of thermal storage. The planned seventh phase is expected to add 2,000 MW of PV together with a 1,400 MW battery system providing 8,400 MWh of storage. (DEWA, 2026a; DEWA, 2026b; DEWA, 2026c)
Technical judgement: solar can displace a growing share of gas-fired generation, but PV alone cannot provide the same controllability as dispatchable gas capacity. Dubai therefore needs a portfolio that includes CSP, batteries, demand response, grid reinforcement and flexible backup. For this reason, one megawatt of solar capacity should not be treated as directly equivalent to one megawatt of gas capacity.
IRENA reported a 2024 global weighted-average levelised cost of electricity of approximately USD 0.043/kWh for utility-scale solar PV. This is a global benchmark rather than a Dubai tariff. Local financing terms, storage, land, network upgrades and contractual arrangements must be considered before drawing a project-specific cost conclusion. (IRENA, 2025)
Environmental judgement: solar energy is not impact-free because panels and batteries require raw materials, manufacturing and end-of-life management. Nevertheless, lifecycle evidence indicates substantially lower greenhouse-gas emissions than fossil-fuel generation. Responsible sourcing, recycling and careful land management therefore remain important. (IPCC, 2022; IEA PVPS, 2024)
The chart presents installed renewable capacity, total installed capacity and annual peak demand using data from DEWA's Annual Statistics Booklet 2025.
Source: calculation based on DEWA's Annual Statistics Booklet 2025. “Clean-capacity share” means installed solar PV and CSP capacity divided by total installed capacity; it does not represent the share of annual electricity generation.
The evidence supports continued solar expansion through a managed transition. PV can reduce daytime gas generation, while CSP and batteries can extend solar availability into evening periods. Energy efficiency, reverse-osmosis desalination, demand response and stronger grid flexibility can further reduce gas use without compromising reliability.
For this activity, I selected household appliances, read the rated power from each appliance label and estimated the average number of hours used per day. The calculator below allows the power and operating time to be changed, so the daily and annual electricity use can be tested directly.
Write the name of each appliance and copy its rated power in watts from the label, manual or charger.
Record or estimate how many hours the appliance operates during a normal day.
The tool uses Energy (kWh) = Power (W) × Time (h) ÷ 1000.
Test lower-power appliances, shorter operating times or a small solar system and compare the results.
Change the power rating or daily use hours of any appliance. The daily and annual electricity use will update automatically.
| Appliance | Power (W) | Use (hours/day) | Energy (kWh/day) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total daily consumption | 0.00 kWh/day | ||
The audit shows why energy efficiency is important alongside solar expansion. Lower household demand reduces the amount of generation, storage and backup capacity required across the wider electricity system.
I used the energy-justice framework to examine whether Dubai's transition is fair as well as technically effective. The framework considers how costs and benefits are distributed, who can participate in decisions and whether different groups are properly recognised.
This asks who receives the benefits and who carries the costs. Cleaner air, more stable energy costs and improved energy security are public benefits, but tariffs, land use, battery replacement and infrastructure costs must not place a disproportionate burden on lower-income households.
This concerns participation and transparency. Residents, workers, businesses and affected communities should receive understandable information and have meaningful opportunities to comment on tariffs, project locations, recycling plans and employment changes.
This requires decision-makers to recognise that groups have different needs and levels of influence. Tenants cannot install rooftop solar as easily as property owners, outdoor workers face stronger climate risks, and migrant workers may have less influence over major infrastructure decisions.
Large solar and storage projects require major investment. A fair approach should protect essential electricity access, explain how costs are recovered and provide targeted support or efficiency programmes for households that would struggle with higher bills.
Government, utilities, investors and consumers may all contribute through investment, tariffs or public finance. Benefits such as cleaner air and fuel savings should be shared broadly rather than captured only by investors or high-income property owners.
Reducing gas utilisation may change the number and type of jobs required. The transition should be gradual and should include retraining for work in solar operation, storage, grid systems, energy efficiency and equipment maintenance.
No. Mining, manufacturing, transport and disposal can create environmental and labour risks. Responsible procurement, supplier standards, repair, recycling and end-of-life planning are needed to reduce these impacts.
Technical experts are necessary, but public communication and consultation still matter. People should be able to understand why projects are selected, how tariffs may change and what environmental or social safeguards are being used.
Urban districts, lower-income households, tenants and workers should not be left behind. Reliable supply, affordability, employment protection and access to efficiency measures should be treated as part of the transition rather than as separate issues.
| Stakeholder | Potential benefit | Main concern | Fair response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Households | Cleaner electricity and lower long-term fuel exposure | Tariff increases or unequal access to efficiency measures | Transparent pricing, targeted support and affordable efficiency programmes |
| Energy workers | New jobs in solar, storage and smart-grid services | Loss of roles linked to gas generation | Phased change, retraining and recognised transferable skills |
| Government and DEWA | Energy security and progress toward sustainability goals | High capital cost and reliability responsibility | Long-term planning, public reporting and diversified technology choices |
| Supply-chain communities | Employment and investment | Mining, labour and environmental impacts | Traceable procurement, labour standards and recycling requirements |
Solar expansion is ethically preferable because it reduces operational emissions and strengthens long-term energy security. However, the transition is only fair when affordability, worker protection, responsible supply chains, public participation and reliable electricity access are treated as core project requirements. For this reason, I support a phased transition rather than an abrupt shutdown of the existing gas system.
Energy-justice framework adapted from Jenkins et al. (2016): distributional, procedural and recognition justice.
SOCIAL AWARENESS ACTIVITY
I discussed the main findings with five adults in a short, informal session. I introduced SDG 7, compared natural gas with the solar alternative, and asked participants to explain the main ideas in their own words.
A short face-to-face discussion supported by selected figures and an energy-use example.
Five adults: classmates, a family member, a friend and a neighbour.
The project summary, the practical calculation and four follow-up questions.
Participant names were not published. Consent records are stored separately, and the blog uses participant codes only.
Each card records the participant's answer to the same four understanding-check questions. Participant names remain anonymous, and consent records are stored separately.
The group understood the environmental advantage of solar power quickly. The concept that required the most explanation was the difference between installed capacity and electricity available at a particular time. Linking the topic to evening demand and household air-conditioning made the idea easier to understand.
The activity showed that energy-system concepts are easier to understand when they are linked to everyday electricity use. It also reinforced the conclusion that Dubai's transition should combine more solar power with storage, efficiency, grid improvements and sufficient flexible backup.
Overall, the evidence supports a rapid but managed transition rather than an immediate one-for-one replacement of gas capacity.
Solar PV should provide a larger share of Dubai's daytime electricity because it reduces fuel use and operational emissions. CSP, batteries, reverse-osmosis desalination, demand response and stronger networks are needed to extend these benefits into evening and peak-demand periods.
Dubai demonstrates how a Gulf city with strong solar resources, high cooling demand and established gas infrastructure can expand clean power without treating sustainability and reliability as opposing goals.
Public capacity and annual statistics were available, but detailed hourly dispatch data, plant-level fuel costs, power-purchase prices and battery-degradation information were not. The findings therefore support a strategic judgement rather than a full financial investment decision.
I recommend a portfolio that combines PV, dispatchable solar, storage, energy efficiency and flexible backup. Clear plans for affordability, workforce transition, responsible procurement and recycling would help ensure that the transition reflects the wider aims of SDG 7.
The project uses official reports and recognised academic sources for its main facts, calculations and figures.
